Writing Project 5

  B e t   a n d   L o s e  

This Excel sheets contains odds (Zeit, BODOG, islandcasino, jazzsports) for the FIFA soccer world championship, taken on June 1 2006 for the winner of the championship, as well as for the winner of the groups. Sometimes these odds are given as so-called "moneyline". Discuss the relation between odds, probabilities, moneyline, and compare the deals of the different sites. Also investigate the correlation between these odds and the FIFA rank.

There are the real probabilities for the teams winning (either the whole championship or just their group)---these numbers are unknown to all of us. Then there are the perceived probabilities and also the amount of money put on each team---these numbers are available to the betting site. Discuss two different strategies of the site:

• a) The site has a strong opinion about the real probabilities and sets the odds accordingly. How risky is that? Can the company lose?
• b) The site's odds are made based only on the amount of money put on the individual teams. Explain how the site can avoid losing money in any outcome.  

You may want to use the applet below to experiment (for the group win bet).